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SUMMARY THESIS
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TREATING AN OIL SHORTAGE (PEAK OIL) AS AN EMERGENCY:
Is Your City or Organization Ready?
By David Miller/ January 2008
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Earthquakes… Hurricanes… Floods…. Tornadoes… Pandemic… Terrorism… Black outs… Peak Oil…
Few people have ever heard of “Peak Oil” or, even if they have, they generally don’t consider it to be of any
emergency-oriented importance. Another phenomenon, global warming, or “climate change” as it has come
to be called, has been one of the biggest news stories lately, but there is another elephant in the room now:
Peak Oil, or the peaking of global oil production. Is your city or organization ready to deal with its local
ramifications?
Based on the findings of the U.S. Department of Energy, the world will reach a peak – or plateau – in
conventional oil production in the next few decades.(1) In February 2005, funded and endorsed by the U.S.
Department of Energy, Dr. Robert Hirsch of the National Energy Technology Laboratory published a report
entitled, “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management”. In this report, Hirsh and
his associates write:
“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented
risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility
will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political
costs will be unprecedented.”(2)
In July 2007, the National Petroleum Council (a federal advisory group representing the oil industry headed
by Lee Raymond, the former chairman of Exxon Mobil) issued a 476-page report titled “Facing the Hard
Truths About Energy”. After a two-year study, involving 350 participants and 19 foreign governments, the
report states that:
“Because the world’s population is growing and living standards are rising worldwide, energy
consumption globally is expected to rise by more than 50 percent over the next 25 years. But
finding supplies to match that growth is going to be increasingly tough and will require huge
new investments in coming decades.”(3)
The phrase “in coming decades” may alleviate any sense of urgency city officials or the general public may
have about “running out of oil”. It is often believed that “time, the market, and/or technology will solve the
problem for us”. While it is true that the investment of vast amounts of capital and research are likely to lead
to great innovations and scientific achievements, the time to widely distribute and implement any such
changes and advances would likely take decades. Unfortunately, in the case of a global oil peak, time is no
longer a luxury.
Referencing a report done by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2007, the Financial Times newspaper
noted, “The world is facing an oil supply ‘crunch’ within five years that will force up prices to record levels
and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel OPEC, the industrialized countries’ energy watchdog has
warned.”(4) As crude prices have risen and reached the startling $100.00 per barrel mark, this truth is
becoming increasingly apparent.
Most American cities and citizens consume energy (and produce its resultant bi-products of waste and
pollution) at an alarming rate through our use of transportation, commercial buildings, residential housing,
computers, appliances, and machinery. The U.S. makes up about 4% of the world’s population, yet we use
25% of the world’s oil.(5) What is seen as “normal” energy use has made life very comfortable and worry-
free as we all go to work, school, and play with little to no regard as to where our fuel and energy comes
from, or how it gets there. Even less attention is paid to the numerous and deep-seated ways that we are
dependent on cheap energy. With regard to transportation, manufacturing, food production, plastics,
chemicals, and electricity, the conveniences and high quality of life that most Americans enjoy, are all only
possible because of the current availability of relatively cheap and abundant energy and oil. But what
happens when this is no longer the case?
Whether long or short in duration, oil shortages can occur due to natural, man-made, or even economic
causes. Any sudden downward shift in availability, or any sudden upward shift in price, would likely lead
to an unpredictable disaster. As a result of Peak Oil, over one hundred million people residing in major cities
around the country will experience dire socioeconomic circumstances that can easily be defined as
conditions of an emergency. What has been done and what can be done to prepare our cities and citizens
for this? How many cities have emergency management plans that include a global or even local oil
shortage as a disaster warranting response preparations?
Page 1 - Continue to Page 2
Is Your City or Organization Ready?
By David Miller/ January 2008
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Earthquakes… Hurricanes… Floods…. Tornadoes… Pandemic… Terrorism… Black outs… Peak Oil…
Few people have ever heard of “Peak Oil” or, even if they have, they generally don’t consider it to be of any
emergency-oriented importance. Another phenomenon, global warming, or “climate change” as it has come
to be called, has been one of the biggest news stories lately, but there is another elephant in the room now:
Peak Oil, or the peaking of global oil production. Is your city or organization ready to deal with its local
ramifications?
Based on the findings of the U.S. Department of Energy, the world will reach a peak – or plateau – in
conventional oil production in the next few decades.(1) In February 2005, funded and endorsed by the U.S.
Department of Energy, Dr. Robert Hirsch of the National Energy Technology Laboratory published a report
entitled, “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management”. In this report, Hirsh and
his associates write:
“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented
risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility
will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political
costs will be unprecedented.”(2)
In July 2007, the National Petroleum Council (a federal advisory group representing the oil industry headed
by Lee Raymond, the former chairman of Exxon Mobil) issued a 476-page report titled “Facing the Hard
Truths About Energy”. After a two-year study, involving 350 participants and 19 foreign governments, the
report states that:
“Because the world’s population is growing and living standards are rising worldwide, energy
consumption globally is expected to rise by more than 50 percent over the next 25 years. But
finding supplies to match that growth is going to be increasingly tough and will require huge
new investments in coming decades.”(3)
The phrase “in coming decades” may alleviate any sense of urgency city officials or the general public may
have about “running out of oil”. It is often believed that “time, the market, and/or technology will solve the
problem for us”. While it is true that the investment of vast amounts of capital and research are likely to lead
to great innovations and scientific achievements, the time to widely distribute and implement any such
changes and advances would likely take decades. Unfortunately, in the case of a global oil peak, time is no
longer a luxury.
Referencing a report done by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2007, the Financial Times newspaper
noted, “The world is facing an oil supply ‘crunch’ within five years that will force up prices to record levels
and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel OPEC, the industrialized countries’ energy watchdog has
warned.”(4) As crude prices have risen and reached the startling $100.00 per barrel mark, this truth is
becoming increasingly apparent.
Most American cities and citizens consume energy (and produce its resultant bi-products of waste and
pollution) at an alarming rate through our use of transportation, commercial buildings, residential housing,
computers, appliances, and machinery. The U.S. makes up about 4% of the world’s population, yet we use
25% of the world’s oil.(5) What is seen as “normal” energy use has made life very comfortable and worry-
free as we all go to work, school, and play with little to no regard as to where our fuel and energy comes
from, or how it gets there. Even less attention is paid to the numerous and deep-seated ways that we are
dependent on cheap energy. With regard to transportation, manufacturing, food production, plastics,
chemicals, and electricity, the conveniences and high quality of life that most Americans enjoy, are all only
possible because of the current availability of relatively cheap and abundant energy and oil. But what
happens when this is no longer the case?
Whether long or short in duration, oil shortages can occur due to natural, man-made, or even economic
causes. Any sudden downward shift in availability, or any sudden upward shift in price, would likely lead
to an unpredictable disaster. As a result of Peak Oil, over one hundred million people residing in major cities
around the country will experience dire socioeconomic circumstances that can easily be defined as
conditions of an emergency. What has been done and what can be done to prepare our cities and citizens
for this? How many cities have emergency management plans that include a global or even local oil
shortage as a disaster warranting response preparations?
Page 1 - Continue to Page 2
The following essay is a summary of a larger 40-page Public Administration masters thesis specifically
addressing emergency planning for Peak Oil in the City of San Francisco, CA and the Bay Area as a whole.
The shorter version below is a call to action for all citizens and leaders in both public and private sectors.
addressing emergency planning for Peak Oil in the City of San Francisco, CA and the Bay Area as a whole.
The shorter version below is a call to action for all citizens and leaders in both public and private sectors.
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| Think. Plan. Do. |